Betting on outcomes, priced like a market

A prediction market lets people trade contracts tied to a real-world event: will the Fed cut rates, will a bill pass, who wins an election. Each contract pays out exactly $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, and a YES share plus a NO share for the same event always add up to $1.

That structure turns the price itself into a probability. If YES shares are trading at $0.65, the market collectively believes there's roughly a 65% chance the event happens. Buy YES at $0.40 and get proven right, and that $0.40 becomes $1, a $0.60 gain. This is why prediction markets exploded in popularity in 2026: they aggregate everyone's information into a single, constantly updating number.