A real, active category
Prediction markets are an established, active category in Web3, not a theoretical idea. Augur was one of the earliest attempts at a fully decentralized, on-chain prediction market protocol. Polymarket built a large user base trading on-chain markets covering elections, current events, and general news, using stablecoins as the settlement currency. Outside of crypto entirely, Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange in the United States offering event contracts on a range of outcomes, showing that the underlying idea of trading on real-world events has traction both on-chain and within traditional regulated finance. Specific trading volumes, valuations, and user counts for any of these platforms change constantly and are best checked directly from the platforms themselves rather than treated as fixed facts.
What connects all of these is the same core design questions covered in this course: how outcome shares are structured, how liquidity is provided, and, above all, how resolution is handled. Differences in those choices are a big part of what distinguishes one prediction market platform from another.